The Rs 6.5 lakh crore farm credit swindle that no one is talking about. And it has been happening every year !

Finally, the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) report on Rs 60,000-crore farm loan waiver (which was subsequently raised to Rs 74,000 crore) has been tabled before Parliament. The farm loan waiver, announced in the 2009 budget with a lot of fanfare, have come under a cloud. Roughly 8-10 per cent of the beneficiary farmers, which means no less than 35.5 lakh farmers’ did not get any advantage of the loan waiver, and similarly a large number of undeserving farmers walked away with the exemption to repay.

But there is a much bigger farm credit scam which still remains to be exposed. 

The loan waiver exposure comes at a time when questions are being asked about who benefits from the significant increases in farm credit being provided for in every budget. In 2012-13, a budgetary provision of Rs 5,75,000-crore for farm credit was made. A year earlier, in 2011-12, Rs 4,75,000-crore was provided. According to Reserve Bank of India, between 2000 and 2010, farm loans increased by 755 per cent. Certainly this is a mammoth growth, and it provides all the reasons to cheer.

This year, Finance Minister P Chidambaram further enhanced the budgetary allocation for farm credit to Rs 700,000-crores. This is certainly a quantum jump. It gives an impression as if such large availability of farm credit is serving the small and marginal farmers very well, and that all is well on the farm front. But somehow the growth in the disbursement of farm loans does not match with the real performance on the ground. With over 2.90 lakh farmers committing suicide in the past 15 years, and with another 42 per cent farmers wanting to quit agriculture if given a choice, the continuing agrarian crisis on the farm front does not justify the intake of massive farm credit year after year. 

The outlay is not matching the outcome. If institutional credit is not reaching farmers, where is it going?

Time and again we have heard that agricultural credit plays an important role in improving farm production, productivity and mitigating farmer’s distress. Such exuberance in loan disbursal comes at a time when in a recent study on "Farm Credit" , the industry association ASSOCHAM analysing the disbursement of credit over the last decade, has listed misdirection in farm loans, increase in proportion of indirect credit by banks, misuse of interest rate subvention for diverting credit to other sectors, imbalances in quantity of credit in relation to size of the farm and crops they raise, and virtual exclusion of small and marginal farmers from institutional credit as some of the major problems besetting this sector.

As I mentioned in an earlier blog post, a damming news report in a Hindi daily brought out the startling reality. According to the report, a confidential document available with the Ministry of Finance categorically states that despite the increase in farm credit by over 2.5 times in past five years, less than 6 per cent of the total institutional credit is made available to small and marginal farmers. Ironically, the Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Agriculture Minister and the ruling party along with its army of economists and planners never get tired of telling the nation of the remarkable strides taken in reaching credit to small and marginal farmers.

In other words, less than Rs 50,000-cr of the Rs 7 lakh crore provided for farm credit will actually benefit small farmers. Remaining amount of Rs 6.5 lakh crore at 4 per cent interest will be misappropriated by agribusiness companies, warehousing corporations and state electricity boards. Why can’t Finance Minister therefore segregate the farm credit to tell us how much of it actually goes to farmers, and how much in the name of farmers to other allied activities?

In 2007, of the total credit of Rs 2,29,400-crores advanced by banks, small farmers share was a mere 3.77 per cent. In other words, 96.23 per cent of the farm credit disbursed in 2007 was actually cornered by big farmers or agribusiness companies. In 2011-12, while total farm credit had swelled to Rs 5,09,000-crore (against a target of 4,75,000-crore) small and marginal farmers got only 5.71 per cent. It is therefore obvious that despite knowing where the fault is the government had deliberately supported agribusiness companies (an increase in indirect credit by banks by enlarging the definition of agriculture) in the name of small and marginal farmers.

It is primarily for this reason that small farmers have been left high and dry. They are left with no choice but to depend on the money lenders who charge exorbitant interests. No wonder, the serial death dance on the farms in the form of suicides show no signs of ending. It has a lot to do with the non-availability of institutional credit.

'Income support not MSP can help with farming woes'


IN A free wheeling talk with GOI Monitor, food and trade policy expert Devinder Sharma favours income support for farmers, attacks FDI and indicates that there is a smear campaign going on against the civil society
Tell us about the farmers' commission which the Karnataka government has decided to set up based on your recommendations.
Farming income
Average monthly income of a farmer is just Rs 2,400 Pic:Sahaja Samrudha
To understand that, let's first talk about all the efforts that have gone into pulling farmers out of poverty. During green revolution, a common parlance gained ground that more you sow, more you produce and hence more your earn. The message found acceptance among farmers who invested a lot of money buying pesticides, fetilizers, seeds and the machinery. However, even after over 40 years of green revolution, the farmers are practically on the poverty line. The NSSO survey of 2003-04 tells us that the average income of a farming family of five members is Rs 2,115. There were only three states above this limit: Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and Tamil Nadu. That was the first and last time the farm income was measured. I guess the government was too embarrassed with the results to repeat the exercise.
At today's price, the income calculated must be around Rs 2,400. But look at the contrast. The lady who comes to my house for cleaning gets a monthly payment of Rs 2,000 for two hours of daily work. Under the 6th Pay Commission, a peon in government service gets a minimum monthly salary of Rs 15,000. But a farmer plus his family who work much longer hours in their fields get just Rs 2,400 a month. The minimum support price (MSP), which was termed a classic way out, is only helping 30 per cent of the farming community because 70 per cent farmers don't have surplus to take to the mandis.  But even if they hardly have anything to sell, they at least produce food. Let's say tomorrow they stop producing, the country would be forced to import that much quantity of food. In other words, they are producing economic wealth for which they should be adequately compensated.
If you look at agriculture globally, on one hand there are highly subsistence farming in developing countries like India and on the other there is highly subsidised farming in rich countries like US, Japan etc. The only way to bail out subsistence farmers is to provide them with direct income support as is being done in the rich and industrialised countries. Former Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa took notice of these suggestions of mine and discussed the issue in detail. Now present Chief Minister Jagdish Shetter has announced the policy. The good thing is somebody has taken this initiative and now I am sure there will be a dynamo effect with farmers' unions mounting political pressure in other states too. In my understanding it will be a game changer which will be highly beneficial for the farmers. Also, this will lead to reverse migration thus reducing pressure on our cities.
What are the things the proposed commission needs to look into?
The farmers' commission has to sort out several things. The direct income defined should be location specific as agriculture cost varies according to areas and factors like size of land, soil quality, productivity et al. Also, the money should not be given for farmers to sit idle.All these factors have to be woven into before the direct income support is announced. This way when the consumer demands cheaper food, it won't impact the farmers. They will be insulated from the market demand.
You have been opposing FDI which is being widely promoted as something which will bail out farmers by removing middlemen.
This hope that with FDI in retail, middlemen will go and farmers' income will rise is just a mirage. Another concept now being promoted is commodity trading which is claimed to help farmers realise the price. However, if these two mechanisms were working, the farmers in US, which is the home for Walmart and commodity trading, would not have been paid Rs 12.50 lakh crore subsidy between 1995-2009. Let's take the example of cotton which is a major crop.  It's the income support, not walmart or commodity trading, that makes cotton farmers of US economically viable. A 2005 analysis tells us that the total production of cotton was worth 3.9 billion dollars but the farmers were paid support of 4.7 billion dollars. On top of it, textile industry was paid 187 million dollars to buy that subsidised cotton. So, the US farmers became “efficient farmers”. On the other hand, farmers in West Africa and India's Vidarbha region were priced out and became “inefficient farmers” not because of productivity but lack of subsidy. When Brazil took the US to World Trade Organization's dispute panel, US lost the case but instead of cutting down its domestic subsidies, it started providing 147 million dollars support to Brazillian farmers.
We are hearing divergent voices on the draft food security bill. What was the traditional system India had to deal with food insecurity?
The proposed food security law is just a political gimmick for the elections. It is an extension of the highly-inefficient public distribution system we already have. More of the same is not the answer. Instead we have to look out newer ways to check pilferage and also feed the hungry.
In 1996, when I was researching for my book 'The famine trap' I got to know about a cluster of villages in Kalahandi, Odisha, which had never seen hunger in last 20 years. Now Kalahandi, as we all know, is called the hunger and starvation belt of India but within this desert what I found was an oasis. The villagers were following a traditional system of 'sharing and caring', remnants of which can be found in several states of the country. In Bihar, it is called 'Gola' system. The villagers form a consolidated fund and buy grain from the farmers to be stored at one place.. Anyone in need of food can approach the committee and take the quantity of grain needed with the condition that he will return the amount plus a rate of interest during the next harvest when he would most likely get some manual labour work in the fields. The Kalahandi villages had this system running for last 18-19 years and they had a surplus of 200 quintal grains. There was no hunger and the neighbouring 20-25 villages had also picked up the concept. At the time of cyclone, these villages were not dependent on government rehabilitation. When M S Swaminanthan got to know about this, he also visited the villagers and the government took note. It adopted the idea but gave the supervisory powers to block development officers (BDOs) and the scheme flopped. That clearly shows how government can mess up a good programme.
Today we have 6.4 lakh villages out of which over 5 lakh villages produce food, rest being cash crop areas. However, we still have people going to bed hungry in these villages. India accounts for one third of world's hungry. This problem can be solved if we ensure that our villages become self reliant in food security through local production, local procurement and local distribution just like the Gola system. It will also reduce pressure on PDS which can then cater to more vulnerable areas hence requiring less expenditure and lesser corruption. However, our leaders don't want that to happen because if people learn to be self reliant, they won't require the government doles. And we all know, doles come handy for elections. This policy started at the time of Britishers who wanted everything in their hands so that people are always dependent on them.
Whenever we talk about India's policies, it is said they are dictated by international organisations like WTO and World Bank dominated by developed countries. Why have we not been able to strengthen our position over the years?
When World Bank gives you loan, it comes with 150 conditions which you or I won't get to see but the government has to address them. These conditions have led to the policies which the country is following now or since whenever we started taking loans. Besides World Bank, we also have WTO, IMF, groups like G20 and other international financial institutes. They are all part of the same design. If you go through past G20 declarations, you will see that what was prescribed there is what India is doing. At WTO, India is one of the countries taking a tough stand against the dominant powers because civil society back home is pushing for that. Otherwise India would have been sold out by now.
The civil society has most often been accused of taking extreme positions on policy matters. Do you agree that just like any other field, everything is not white with activism too?
The idea of civil society being always critical and always taking extreme position is a clever strategy to present an image to the public that civil society is not their supporter or fighting for their cause. But I can tell you by and large those standing against the system are doing it genuinely. They have odds stacked again them.  Now, when it comes to opposing policies of the government or the corporates, we do it only after a thorough research.
Take the example of agriculture. Punjab government has signed an MoU with Monsanto for setting up centres of excellence in the state. If we stand against this, we are labelled as “anti-farmers.” But tell me, if after 45 years of green revolution, Punjab's farmers are committing suicides, 19 people die of cancer daily, soil has been devastated beyond measures and water table has plummeted to dangerous levels, how can we term it development? Government and companies have vested interests which is why they will keep on promoting the same. Who should be paying a penalty for all the damage that has been done? An engineer is punished when a bridge build by him falls down, a doctor is punished for medical negligence, why can't we ascribe responsibility on agricultural scientists, corporates and economists because of whom people are dying. How can they get away for using bodies as stepping stones for growth?
There are definitely black sheep in civil society too like there are in every sector but we have to understand that civil society is not a homogeneous clout. There are several corporates which form foundations and they are also part of the civil society. But most of the time they are just doing a lip service. It's not easy to stick your neck out and those are braving it must be appreciated.

Asking the Wrong Questions: GM crops claim to increase yields, but the problem is of access and distribution, not production


Speaking at the annual Oxford Farming Conference a few weeks back, the rebel environmentalist Mark Lynas, who went over to the all-powerful GM industry, was quoted as saying: "Research published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests the world will require 100% more food to feed the maximum projected population adequately."

It's not the first time this argument has been used, but considering the emphasis Lynas laid on the capabilities of controversial genetic engineering technology to meet the growing demand for food, a flurry of articles and editorials appeared. The underlying argument is the same. The world needs to produce more for the year 2050, and therefore we need GM crops.

Well, what population projections are we talking of? The planet today hosts seven billion people, and all estimates point to population growing to nine billion by 2050. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), more than 870 million people were chronically undernourished in 2012, with almost 250 million of the world's hungry living in India.

These appalling statistics generate an impression of an acute shortfall in food production. At every conference, the same sets of statistics are flashed to justify the commercialisation of GM crops. But how much food is globally available? Is the world really witnessing a shortfall in food production? Or, for that matter, is there a shortage of food in India? These are the questions that have been very conveniently overlooked.

Let us therefore take a look at the performance of global agriculture in the year 2012. Despite the severe drought in the US and Australia, where wheat production is anticipated to fall by 40%, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the world still harvested 2239.4 millionmetric tonnes, enough to feed 13 billion people at one pound per day.

In other words, the food being globally produced today can feed twice the existing population. According to the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), against the average requirement of about 2,400 calories per capita, what is presently available is 4,600 calories. So where is the crisis on the food production front? The crisis is in food (mis)management, which surprisingly is being ignored.

In the US, Canada and Europe, 40% food is wasted. For example, Americans waste $165 billion worth of food every year, which could very well meet the entire requirement of sub-Saharan Africa. Food wasted in Italy, if saved, can feed the entire population of the hungry in Ethiopia. According to the UK Institution of Mechanical Engineers, almost half the food produced globally is allowed to go waste. Studies show that 50% of fruits and vegetables stocked by supermarkets in US actually rot. If all the food wastage was to be appreciably reduced, hunger and malnutrition can easily become history.

In India too, it is not a crisis in food production. On Jan 1, India had 66 million tonnes of food stocks. As someone has said, if you were to stack all those bags of grain one over the other, you could climb up to the moon and back. That's the quantity of food that has been available almost every year since 2001.

While visuals of food rotting in godowns are fresh in the memory, the government has been merrily exporting the surplus rather than feeding its hungry millions. This fiscal, wheat exports are expected to touch 9.5 million tonnes; rice exports have already crossed nine million tonnes in 2011-12. Instead of propping up food procurement and distribution, the food ministry is actually toying with the idea of withdrawing from procurement operations and using surplus stocks in futures trading, leaving the hungry to be fed by the markets.

Meanwhile, GM crops are being promoted as the answer to growing food needs. In reality, there is no GM crop in the world that actually increases crop productivity. In fact, the yields of GM corn and GM soybean, if USDA is to be believed, are actually less than the non-GM varieties.

Nor has the promise of a drastic reduction in the usage of harmful pesticides proved to be correct. Charles Benbrook of the Washington State University has conclusively shown that between 1996 and 2011, the overall pesticides use in US has risen by a whopping 144 million kg. In addition, as much as 14.5 million acres is afflicted with 'super-weeds' — weeds that are very difficult to control. And such has been the contamination that 23 weeds now fall in the category of 'super-weeds'.

Regarding safety, a few months back the revelations by Giles-Eric Seralini, a molecular biologist at the University of Caen in France, shocked the world when for the first time he demonstrated long-term studies involving rats fed for two years with Monsanto's Roundup-Ready GM maize. The rats had developed huge kidney and mammary gland tumours, had problems with their body organs and showed increased mortalities.

Against the usual practice of such studies involving feeding rats with GM foods for 90 days, Seralini had for the first time ever experimented with rats for two years, which corresponds to the entire human lifespan. As expected, the shocking results, peer-reviewed and published in a respected scientific journal, have already created quite a furore internationally.

I therefore don't understand the need to take a huge risk with human health and environment when there is food available in abundance. The greater challenge is to curb wastage, provide adequate access and ensure judicious distribution of food.

The writer is a food and agriculture analyst.


Source: The Times of India, New Delhi; Feb 28, 2013.
http://bit.ly/13Y5Zo7

India too follows the failed global economic prescription -- Rob Peter, to pay Paul.

I have got tired of reading the same faulty prescription. The economic way forward being suggested by all and sundry is a failed model. And yet, every other day you see the same analysis, the same arguments, and the same approach being suggested ad nauseatingly. What has happened to this country? Where has our collective wisdom disappeared? Must we be cowed down by the blackmail being continuously unleashed by the rating agencies as well as the international financial institutions?

This is in reality what is meant by populism.

The populist perception is not often pragmatic. I agree. And this is exactly what I am worried about. The populist perception today is that with the fiscal deficit likely to grow, at a time when current account deficit is already galloping, the Finance Minister must ensure that the investment climate remains favourable. Stepping up expenditures is something the government can ill afford at the moment. So the axe must fall on welfare schemes.

Diesel prices have already been freed, and GAAR deferred. Taxing the rich is not the right way, and therefore the only solution these economists and economic writers have is to shower more tax concessions and freebies to India Inc.

If this was workable, and would help kick start the economy, I wonder why the same formula is not working in Europe. All the years of austerity drive, following the economic recession of 2008-09, hasn't seen the European economy showing any signs of emerging out of woods. Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, France, Germany and you name it. All European countries are grappling in the dark having blindly followed the IMF prescription. While public outrage has spilled to the streets, unemployment and poverty is growing. With many living in their cars, the crisis has put cash starved Greeks on their bikes. Unemployment in Greece has grown to 25 per cent. Greece is not an exception.

The reality is that the countries that imposed harsh austerity measures are deeper into crisis. In Greece, Spain and Portugal -- where austerity provides a test case -- unemployment is soaring.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has finally admitted that it had underestimated the damage from its austerity drive. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard has in a paper admitted that it didn't fully understand how austerity will not be able to rejuvenate economic growth. As a caveat, and as a face saving, IMF says that austerity works well if fiscal multiplier are small, but for large economies it actually ends up increasing debt-to-GDP ratio.

Should India therefore follow the European decline?

Regardless of what is happening globally, the rich want to extract the last pound of flesh. You shouldn't therefore be surprised at the populist discourse. As the Budget day nears, the decibel pitch increases. It will reach its crescendo on the day Mr P Chidambaram will stand up to present Budget 2013. As expected, the stock markets will first register a fall (this is a blackmail tactic they have perfected) before the Budget is presented, and as the Finance Minister showers freebies on business and industry, it will rise.

But should we succumb to populism? Just because the entire public policy space is occupied by austerity hawks -- in India, they use the phrase: Spending cuts -- does not mean that we have to keep quiet and accept the faulty economic regime. It does not mean that the populist view -- Rob Peter, to pay Paul -- should be accepted just because everyone is saying so.

Farmers Income Commission is now a reality in India. Karnataka becomes the first state to establish it.


Karnataka has done it. Last week it announced the setting up of a Farmers Income Commission. The terms and conditions have yet to be formulated. If implemented properly, and followed up in Punjab, it can be the game changer for Indian agriculture which is reeling under a terrible agrarian distress. 

Noted agricultural scientist Dr M S Swaminathan sees merit in this. Thanking me for persuading the Karnataka government to establish an income commission, he wrote in a personal communication: “The National Policy for Farmers calls for a paradigm shift from measuring agricultural progress in terms of production to measuring progress by the real rate in the growth of the farmers income….This is the need of the hour.”   

Six years after I first demanded the need to provide farmers with an assured monthly income, the nation is gradually waking up to the desperate need for such a body to address the fundamental issue of income security among country's exasperated farming community. Credit will go to former Karnataka Chief Minister Y S Yeddurappa who very patiently listened to me, discussed its pros and cons and agreed to set up such a body. Present Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar finally announced it as part of the agricultural budget presented in Feb 2013. 

By providing income in the hands of farmers, the mainstay of the economy, we are actually providing the real stimulus to kick-start the economy.

In my opinion, modern farming leads to two kinds of agriculture. First, is the highly subsidised agriculture in the western countries. And second, it results in subsistence agriculture, as is being witnessed in the developing world. The only way to bail out subsistence farmers is to provide them with direct income support, as is being done in the rich and industrialised countries.

Let us make a comparison. In the 10-year period, between 1997 and 2008, the National Crime Record Bureau tells us that approximately 2.40 lakh farmers had committed suicide primarily to escape the humiliation that comes along with growing indebtedness. Another 42 per cent want to quit agriculture if given an alternative. In the US on the other hand, between 1995 and 2009, farmers have been paid Rs 12.50 lakh crore as farm subsidies, including direct income support. In other words, while our farmers were reeling under mounting debt, US farmers got a fat cheque sitting at home.

In Europe, the economic handouts are more lucrative. Farmers receive a per hectare subsidy in the form of direct income support of Rs 4,000. In the case of cereals alone, if you multiply Rs 4,000 with 2.2 lakh hectares area sown in 27 countries of European Union, it comes to a staggering Rs 90.40 lakh crore.

At a time when all out efforts are to launch the 2nd Green Revolution, buoyed with genetically modified crops, and stricter IPR laws that will shift the control over seed into the hands of private agribusiness companies, the market structure being laid out -- contract farming, food retail, commodity exchanges, and future trading -- all aim at making farmers economically viable, will actually allow the companies to walk away with more profits and leave farmers with empty pockets.  

If all this was workable, and was bringing income to farmers, there is no reason why the US and EU governments for instance would be providing huge subsidies, much of it in the form of direct income support or income transfer in one form or the other, to their miniscule population of farmers.

For 45 years, the dominant breed of bureaucrats and technocrats, have been telling farmers that the more they produce the more will be their income. By saying so they were actually not helping farmers, but in the name of farmers promoting the commercial interests of fertiliser, pesticides, seed and mechanical equipment companies. No wonder, the average monthly income of a farming family in 2003-04, which includes five members of a family plus two cattle, had been worked out by NSSO at a paltry Rs 2115. The NSSO has since stopped measuring farm income.

Under the 6th Pay Commission, a peon or a chaprasi in government service gets a minimum monthly salary of Rs 15,000. A farming family earns less than Rs 2115 (in terms of prevalent prices, it would be around Rs 2,400 a month). Can’t we as a nation even think of providing farmers with an income that equals what a chaprasigets?

If Rs 2115 is the monthly income of a farming family (in Punjab, it hovers around Rs 3,200) shouldn't we as a nation hang our head in shame? If agriculture was indeed profitable, I see no reason why rural despair would increasingly drive farmers to take their own lives. Even in the frontline agricultural state of Punjab, two farmers commit suicide every day. As per a recent house-to-house survey, 19 people succumb to cancer ever day in Punjab ostensibly from the excessive use and abuse of chemicals in agriculture.

Farmers were made to believe that putting more inputs would bring them more profits. They are now being told that free markets -- commodity exchange, future trading and food retail – will make farming profitable and economically viable. What is not being told is that it didn't work in the US and the European Union. And it will therefore not work in India.

Look at the way such a flawed approach is being aggressively promoted in India. The beneficiaries of future trading and commodity exchange are not the farmers but speculators, the consultancy firms and rating agencies, and the business. And again, this is being done in the name of farmers. On the other hand, farmer unions have been only asking for a higher minimum support price (MSP). None of them have visualised that there are barely 35 to 40 per cent farmers in the country who ultimately get the benefit of procurement prices since they have some surplus to sell in the mandis.  

The rest of the farming community, which is in a majority, also produces food. Even if they hardly have anything to sell, they at least produce food. If they were not to produce food for themselves, the country would be importing that quantity of food. In other words, they produce economic wealth. Therefore they too need to be adequately compensated for the economic wealth they produce for the country. #

After China, it is now the turn of India. Bt cotton 'silver bullet' bites the dust.

As Prof Glenn Davis Stone points in his blog post, Indian farmers are responsible for not turning the Bt cotton tide in favour of Mahyco-Monsanto. They don't know how to adapt to the GM technology. 

The Bt cotton controversy refuses to die down. Before Bt cotton was introduced in India, in 2004, we were flashed with the China story. China had an upstart and had already brought in some 5 million farmers to cultivate Bt cotton, we were told. The genetically modified cotton was projected as a 'silver bullet' for the Chinese small cotton producers, and so how could India afford to miss the technological revolution?

India did bite into the bullet. The media strategy to show how China was racing ahead of India certainly paid dividends. The Genetic Engineering Approval Committee (as it was then called) gave a green nod for commercialisation of Bt cotton, in 2004. In fact, GEAC was ready to allow the entry of Bt cotton in India's cotton field even a year earlier in 2003, if it was not for the opposition by a few of us who challenged the scientific data. Nevertheless, the approval came.

It has been roughly eight years since Bt cotton was introduced, and we are repeatedly bombarded by industry drones of how successful the introduction has been for the farmers as well as the country. But surprisingly, if you noticed, the Chinese success story has disappeared from the headlines. If Bt cotton in China was a classic case of a 'silver bullet' before 2004, there should have been an unprecedented boom in cotton production in China. By now, considering all the promises made in increasing 'productivity', China should have emerged as the global supplier of cotton. On the contrary, no one talks of China's foray into GM cotton anymore. There must be some reasons.

In 2006, a study conducted by Cornell University along with the Chinese Academy of Sciences showed that after seven years of introduction Chinese farmers had to undertake 20 times more pesticides sprays to control pests. "The study -- the first to look at the longer-term economic impact of Bt cotton -- found that by year three, farmers in the survey who had planted Bt cotton cut pesticide use by more than 70 percent and had earnings 36 percent higher than farmers planting conventional cotton. By 2004, however, they had to spray just as much as conventional farmers, which resulted in a net average income of 8 percent less than conventional cotton farmers because Bt seed is triple the cost of conventional seed." (Joint study shows genetically modified cotton less profitable in China, People's Daily, July 26, 2006. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200607/26/eng20060726_286925.html). 

The magic bullet had bitten the dust in China.

In India, the Corporate media kept the story alive. Every now and then I find edit page articles being published detailing the promises of GM crops. More often than not these are based on wrong facts. If this is not enough, GM industry ensures that it packs a few 'participants' in every conference/seminar organised by the civil society or farmer organisations. Recently while I was speaking at the Indian Merchant's Chambers in Mumbai, two farmers -- one from Rajasthan, and another from Warangal in Andhra Pradesh -- got up to say how successful the technology has been for the farmers. Incidentally, both farmers happened to be passing through the city when they heard of the conference !

Returning back to the Bt cotton controversy, I draw your attention to an excellent (and provocative) analysis by Prof Glenn Davis Stone of the University of Washington. In a blog post entitled: GM cotton failing in India; blame the farmers! (See the linkbit.ly/Y1lKc0 ), he writes: If you follow GMO debates you will have heard several years of kennel barking about how these figures show a remarkable success.But as I have pointed out (in my blog and in EPW), most of the rise in productivity had nothing to with Bt cotton; in fact it happened before Bt cotton became popular. 

He then goes on to explain. "Check it out: the biggest rises were from 2002/3 to 2004/5, when yields rose 56 per cent from 302 to n470 kg. But by 2004/5, only 5.6 per cent of India's cotton farmers had adopted Bt. Do the math: if those 5.6 per cent of planters were really responsible for a 56 per cent rise in yields, then they must have been harvesting 3,288 kg/hectare."

This incisive analysis by Prof Stone is what I would like the business journalists to read. For the policy planners and politicians, who are habitual in having faith in foreign writings (in addition to policy approaches), let me tell you that this analysis too comes from an American anthropologist. I am sure your faith will not be diluted or corrupted.

Dr K R Kranti, director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR), the institute that monitors cotton cultivation in India, has said: "No significant yield advantage has been observed between 2004-2011 when area under Bt cotton increased from 5.4 to 96 per cent." Shouldn't this statement alone put the entire controversy at rest? Why is that the GM industry and its drum beaters continue to rake false facts again and again to mislead the nation? Well, it is the powerful stakes involved that gains more when more confusion is created.    

Whatever be the reasons, I think it is important to rest the controversy on Bt cotton once for all. Let the cotton farmer emerge out of this deadly trap, and lead a decent life. Spare the thought for him. #

See also, Dr K R Kranti's paper:
http://www.cotton247.com/news/?storyid=2160 (part I)
http://cotton247.com/news/ci/?storyid=2159 (part II)
http://cotton247.com/news/?storyid=2171 (part III)

How India destroyed its Oilseeds Revolution, and became world's 2nd biggest importer of edible oils.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has accused US companies for derailing India’s oilseeds production programme. On a visit to Vidharbha a few days back, the minister said: “In the US, the entire soybean production is done with genetically modified (GM) technology. You have adopted GM in your country but you don’t let that happen in India. This is not proper and it is alarming.” 

Chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) Dr Ashok Gulati, too has been using the argument of growing edible oil imports to push in another environmentally-disastrous plantation crop -- palm oil. A few days later, Chairman of the Punjab Farmer’s Commission, Dr G S Kalkat , asked: “India imports edible oils and pulses. Why can’t Punjab produce these?” But in the very next sentence, he actually asked for a minimum support price and assured procurement for maize, and not for oilseeds and pulses. 

It is true that edible oil import bill has multiplied over the past three decades. For the year ending 2012 (edible oil year is from Nov 2011 to Oct 2012, for instance), the imports touched 9.01 million tonnes valued at Rs 56,295-crore. Between 2006-07 and 2011-12, edible oil imports have risen by a whopping 380 per cent. Therefore, there is definitely an urgent need to reduce the imports, and pass on a significant proportion of annual foreign exchange outgo of Rs 56,295-crore into the hands of Indian farmers. 

Instead of paying Indonesian, Malaysian, American and Brazilian farmers from where India imports edible oils, the effort should be to support the domestic farmers instead.
But is crop technology a problem? Is it because India does not have improved varieties of oilseeds that the production hasn’t picked up? Or are Sharad Pawar, Ashok Gulati and GS Kalkat deliberately harping on a wrong tree? After all, how come India, which was almost self-sufficient in edible oils in 1993-94, gradually emerged as world’s second biggest importer of edible oils?

Former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi too was baffled. I recall how in 1985 he had expressed concern at the rising import bill for edible oils, which then stood at Rs 1,500 crore. “I can understand why we import petrol and fertilisers, because we don’t produce enough; but why should we be importing edible oils when we can produce the same, “he once asked.And rightly so, he launched an Oilseeds Technology Mission to increase domestic oilseeds production and thereby reduce imports of edible oils.

His efforts bore fruits. In next 10 years, by 1993-94, India had become almost self-sufficient in edible oils production, producing 97per cent of the domestic needs. The quantum jump in oilseeds production was termed as ‘Yellow Revolution’. This was however not palatable to international financial institutions. It was then, and under pressure from the World Bank to restructure our economy, that India began to reduce the import tariffs on edible oils. Although under the WTO norms, India had bound its edible oil import duties at 300 per cent (except for soybean, which were reduced to 45 per cent to benefit the US interests), these duties were gradually reduced. Imports flowed in. Compared to 1.02 million tonnes edible oil imports in 1996-97, India’s imports doubled to 2.98 million tonnes in 1998-99, and then jumped to 5 million tonnes in 1999-2000.

Since oilseeds are dryland crops, the negative impact was felt by millions of farmers languishing in the harsh environment. What could have been a cash crop for these poor farmers, turned out to be a cash cow for the major exporting countries. Sharad Pawar has himself been responsible for reducing import duties. In 2004, import duty on edible oil was pegged at 75 per cent, with a quota system that allowed still cheaper imports of refined and crude edible oils. In 2010-11, import duties on crude edible oil have been brought down to zero, and refined edible oil to 7.5 per cent. No wonder, imports increased from 4.7 million tonnes in 2006 to 9.01 million tonnes in 2012.

Sharad Pawar therefore is very conveniently using the edible oil import surge to promote GM soybean. What he is not telling is that as per research conducted by the University of Purdue, University of Nebraska, University of Wisconsin, University of Iowa and University of Arkansas in the US, crop yields of GM soy have been found 4 to 20 per cent less than non-GM varieties. I therefore don’t understand his logic of promoting GM varieties of soybean which produce less than the existing improved varieties that are not genetically modified.

To say that producing oilseeds to meet the present requirements would require 30 per cent more land than what is under cultivation is also mischievous. Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan besides some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh can be very conveniently shifted from wheat, rice and cotton to oilseeds, including mustard and soybean. This will reduce the burden on wheat and rice storage, and at the same time provide more income in the hands of dryland farmers. In addition, it will also mean reducing the groundwater usage since oilseeds water requirement is much less as compared.

Palm oil plantations on the other hand have been found to environmentally destructive. Worldwatch Institute has shown how palm oil monoculture adds to desertification, and also acerbates global warming by releasing 10 times more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than tropical forest. 

In any case, as is clear from past experience, no effort to improve production can be fruitful till India restores the import duties to at least 130 to 150 per cent so as to stop cheaper imports. This has to be accompanied by a mission approach to provide assured procurement and assured prices to farmers. Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan can very easily become the edible oil supplier of the country provided a set of policy decisions are spelled out that can make oilseeds cultivation economically viable. Setting up of processing industries will also help create more employment. Why are we not doing it is the bigger question?