Modi Govt's 1 year: Is agriculture the weakest link or there is something more to it?

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government completes one year in office, many believe that the one sector that missed attention and remains the weakest link in the economic growth story is agriculture.

With close to 60-crore people engaged in agriculture, and considering that this is probably the first time the BJP broke through its image of being an urban-centric party by mustering political support from all across the country in its historic electoral triumph, the continuing neglect of agricultural should not be perceived as an economic oversight. It’s actually designed as part of a well-thought out economic strategy to shift bulk of the population out of agriculture.

Let there be no doubt. Arvind Panagariya in his inaugural piece on the Niti Ayog website wrote: “But in the long run, the potential of agriculture to bring prosperity to a vast population remains limited. In sum, agricultural growth and expansion of good jobs in industry and services can go hand-in-hand to bring rapid elimination of poverty and shared prosperity for all.” This sums it all.  The Narendra Modi government is not neglecting agriculture. It is creating conditions that enable more and more farmers to abandon agriculture.

I am sure you will agree that otherwise no vice-chairman of country’s economic think-tank could have said it so loudly and clearly if he didn’t have the mandate to say so.

Keeping agriculture impoverished therefore is the easiest way to make this happen. Otherwise I see no reason why at a time when the international prices of agricultural commodities are witnessing an unprecedented crash, and when a partial drought in 2014 accompanied by unseasonal rains in the early part of 2015 has left farmers battered and bruised, the Modi government remains unfazed.  Except for providing a relatively higher crop compensation for rain-hit farmers, motivated more by the national TV media suddenly waking up to the agrarian crisis, there is nothing that shows government’s seriousness in tackling the worsening farm crisis. In fact, with El Nino hovering over, there is a possibility of a drought which will further accentuate the farm crisis. 

In a complete U-turn to its electoral promise of providing 50 per cent higher minimum support price (MSP), the government has informed the Supreme Court that it cannot do so considering the impact it will have on market prices. The farm prices have therefore been raised by a paltry Rs 50 per quintal, corresponding to an increase of just 3.6 per cent. At the same time, BJP-ruled States – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – have been directed not to provide any bonus over and above the MSP. Moreover, with WTO breathing down its neck, the government may now find it difficult to raise as well as extend the MSP provision for other crops, except for wheat and paddy.

Paying farmers a distress price and then to say that ‘the potential of agriculture to bring prosperity for a vast majority of the population remains limited', is in fact a clever ploy to kill agriculture and move people out to urban areas. If farmers were to be paid an economic price for their harvest there is no reason why agriculture cannot be a prosperous sector. Similalry if Govt employees were not to be paid a fair income package, they too would quit government employment. There is also no denying that children of farmers do have aspirations and would like to buy motorcycles and iPads. Agriculture too can meet these aspirations provided the mainline economic thinking allows farming to prosper.

Not only declining farm incomes, agriculture also is being starved of public investments. At a time when MNREGA outlay is higher than that for agriculture I don’t know how a miracle can be ushered in the rural areas. In the 11^th Plan, agriculture received just Rs 1-lakh crore. This is less than the subsidy of Rs 1.62-lakh crore given for the construction of the Terminal-3 of the New Delhi airport. In the 12^th Plan, agriculture which employs 60-crore people, received Rs 1.5 lakh crore. With such dismally low public investments, all efforts seem to be somehow to keep the farm sector gasping for breath. As if this is not enough, mainline economists are lobbying for drastically cutting down on social security support under the garb of containing the fiscal deficit. 

I am hoping that the Prime Minister would see through the futility of forcing small farmers to become dehari mazdoors. The challenge is how to revitalize agriculture in a manner that it not only provides gainful employment but also gears up to withstand the challenges of feeding the country in the years to come.I am sure Narendra Modi understands the importance of spreading the gains of economic development far and wide. There is no better pathway than to make agriculture an economically viable proposition. But only if his economic advisors let him do so. #

Is agriculture the weakest link or there is something more to it? 

ABPLive.in May 25, 2015. http://goo.gl/qDGnQG  

A good year for agriculture, a bad year for farmers

Despite a deficient monsoon, 2014 was a year of record agricultural production. But the buoyancy in production failed to translate into a higher income for farmers. It was a year of disappointment for farmers.

During the agricultural year 2013-24, which ended in June 2014, farmers produced a record harvest of 264.4 million tonnes of foodgrains. Not only in foodgrains, quantum jumps were also witnessed in the production of oilseeds, maize , cotton and pulses. Production of oilseeds reached a record high of 34.5 million tonnes, a jump of 4.8 per cent. Maize production increased by 8.52 per cent to reach a level of 24.2 million tones. Pulses production reached an all-time high of 19.6 million tonnes, an increase of 7.10 per cent over the previous year. Cotton production too touched a record high.

In Kharif 2014 too, despite the shortfall in monsoon rains, farmers produced a bumper crop of rice, maize and cotton.

With such record production, and that too at a time when monsoon had acted as a damper, the nation remains indebted to the virile and hardworking farmers. Despite being at the bottom of the pyramid, Indian farmers have not failed the nation. Probably knowing this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, promised to provide more income in the hands of farmers by implementing the Swaminathan Committee report. BJP had time and again reiterated its promise of ensuring farmers a 50 per cent profit over the cost of production.

But in reality, farmers were given a paltry increase of Rs 50 per quintal in the minimum support price (MSP) for paddy and wheat, which translates into an increase of 3.6 per cent, not even enough to offset the additional burden from the prevailing inflation rate at that point of time. On top of it, basmati rice and cotton witnessed a crash in its prices. While basmati rice production had doubled in Punjab and Haryana, an alarming dip in prices was observed. Disappointed farmers sold basmati at prices ranging between Rs 1600-2400 per quintal, against a price of Rs 3,261 to Rs 6,085 they got last year.

In cotton too, prices slumped from an average of Rs 4,400 to Rs 5,200 per quintal last year to around Rs 3,000 this year, prompting the government to direct the Cotton Corporation of India to step in to buy at the procurement price of Rs 3,750 per quintal. Let us not forget that the jump in basmati and cotton production happened as farmers had incurred an additional cost on diesel to run tube wells for irrigation. Punjab and Haryana had recorded a 50 per cent shortfall in monsoon. 

As if this was not enough, Ministry of Food had issued a directive asking State Governments not to provide any bonus over the MSP. In case, the State Governments continue to provide bonus, the Ministry will withdraw from procurement operations. State Governments have also been advised to reduce procurement in view of the excessive stocks in storage. In other words, farmers are being increasingly left to face the vagaries of the markets.  

With the Food Corporation of India (FCI) being made to gradually withdraw from procurement operations, Chhatisgrah, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab are witnessing a deliberate delay in procurement operations. Chhatisgrah, which had promised to buy ever grain of rice produced by farmers, had limited rice procurement to a maximum of 10 quintals per farmers. After protests, it agreed to buy 15 quintals per farmer. In Punjab, an inordinate delay in making spot payments to farmers is being seen as a subtle message to farmers not to produce more rice.

Coming at a time when farming is already faced with declining incomes and rising indebtedness, the failure to prop-up agriculture will only add to the exodus from the farm. With land acquisition made easier, and also extending it to multiple cropped areas, agriculture has become a sacrificial goat in the road to economic growth. All talk of economic reforms has so far remained confined to the industry. Agriculture does not figure at all on the economic radar screen of the country. The implications it will have on the country’s food security in the years to come are being simply glossed over.   

The continuing apathy is clearly visible from the significantly low budgetary provisions for agriculture year after year. In 2013, agriculture received 19,307-crore from the annual budget kitty (exceeding Rs 16 lakh-crore), which is less than 1 per cent of the total budget outlay. This year, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley provided only Rs 22,652-crore to agriculture and cooperation departments. 

Source: 2014 -- A good year for agriculture, a bad year for farmers. ABPLive.in 
http://www.abplive.in/incoming/2014/12/31/article465644.ece/2014-A-good-year-for-agriculture-a-bad-year-for-farmers

What going wrong with Indian agriculture?

Reisernte in Assam (© picture-alliance/AP)

It's a paradox. With its grain silos bursting at the seams, and unable to store a massive surplus of wheat and rice, India is looking for every opportunity to export. After exporting 22 million tonnes of rice and wheat in the fiscal year 2013 (April 2012 to March 2013), India is expected to export another 18 million tonnes in 2013-14. In other words, India's food exports will touch a record 40 million tonnes in just two years. By the time the general elections are over in May 2014, another 31 million tonnes of wheat harvest is expected to be purchased by government agencies. This comes in the wake of a bountiful harvest expected this year – a record foodgrain production of over 263 million tonnes. 

Strangely, food exports are being encouraged at a time when close to 250 million Indians, one-fourth of the world's hungry population, somehow struggle to meet their basic food needs. It is primarily to address the growing food insecurity in a nation saddled with huge food reserves that the government has finally enacted the National Food Security Act 2013 making legal provisions for a monthly per capita entitlement of five kilogram of wheat, rice or millets at a highly subsidized price to those living below the poverty line. Even though this is not enough to meet the nutritional requirement of an average household, it will provide some relief to those living in absolute hunger. To meet the food distribution requirements under the new food security law, the government will annually require about 61 million tonnes of food reserves. The Act caters to 67 percent of the population or roughly 830 million people, including the destitute, the old and infirm, as well as the homeless and migrating populations. 

WTO objects

It isn't that India cannot produce enough food to feed its burgeoning population. But what is coming in the way is the international pressure that aims at limiting domestic production and opening the Indian market to cheaper food imports. At the Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) held at Bali in Indonesia in December 2013, the United States backed by the European Union had challenged the food security provisions. An agreement was reached wherein India accepted the "Peace Clause" for an interim period of four years. The clause originally provided exemption to those countries that used export subsidies for agriculture beyond the permissible limit. It had expired at the end of 2003, but is being reintroduced to ensure that India's subsidies are not challenged. 

At the heart of the problem is the increasing amount being spent on public stockholding of foodgrains and thereby the rise in administered prices for wheat and rice that is procured from small farmers every year. According to the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, the administered or subsidised price paid to farmers by the government cannot exceed the de minimis level of 10 percent of the total value of the annual production. India, however, has already exceeded the limit in case of rice where the procurement price has shot up to 24 percent from the cut-off period 1986 to 1988.

It is not the food subsidy bill that is actually under the radar, but in reality it is the procurement price system that India administers to its small farmers that is now on the chopping block. If India is forced to limit the rice procurement price at 10 percent of the total value of production, and similarly refrain from increasing the wheat procurement price in the years to come, it will spell a death knell for agriculture already reeling under a terrible distress. Procurement price cushions farmers against the distress price that markets extract at the time of harvest. 

According to the US-based Environment Working Group, America had paid a quarter of a trillion US Dollars (179,7 billion Euros) in subsidy support for agriculture between 1995 and 2009. In the 2014 Farm Bill, these subsidies have been further extended. It provides for nearly 1 trillion US Dollars (718,6 billion Euros) in support for agriculture in the next ten years, including 756 billion US-Dollars (543 billion Euros) for the food aid programmes administered under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programme (SNAP). 

Agricultural subsidies results in massive dumping of foodgrains across the globe thereby dampening farm gate prices, and pushing farmers out of agriculture. In any case, 14 agricultural commodity exports organizations have written to the US Trade Representative lamenting the temporary relief accorded to India under the "Peace Clause" thereby dampening the US export opportunities. In India on the other hand, wheat and rice growers have merely received 9.4 billion US Dollars (6,8 billion Euros) as procurement price in 2012. 

Agrarian Crisis

The effort by WTO to reshape Indian agricultural policies is happening at a time when Indian agriculture itself is faced with a terrible agrarian crisis. What began to be called as Second Generation Environmental Impacts resulting from the intensively-farmed Green Revolution has now blown into a full grown crisis in agriculture sustainability. With soil fertility devastated, underground water table plummeting as a result of relentless water mining, environmental contamination from excessive use and abuse of chemical pesticides, the entire farming equation has gone wrong. 

With agriculture becoming unremunerative over the years, and with the farm incomes steadily declining, a majority of the farmers want to quit farming if given an alternative. A recent survey by the New Delhi based think-tank Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) has shown that 76 percent farmers want to leave agriculture. This is because farming has becoming an economically unviable proposition. According to the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the average monthly income of a farming family in India stands at a paltry 2,115 Rupees (about 25 Euros). In other words, a majority of the farmers are somehow surviving below the official poverty line. Farmers as a class are certainly at the bottom of the pyramid. 

No wonder, Census 2011 has shown that on an average 2,300 people are quitting farming every day and migrating to the cities looking for a menial job. Ironically, the crisis in agriculture is happening at a time when the country's economy has been on a growth trajectory. In the past decade, India's annual GDP growth had been at an average of 7 percent. Even between 2005 and 2009 when the average rate of growth was 8.3 to 9 percent, a Planning Commission study shows that 140 million people had left agriculture. 

Normally those who abandon farming should be joining the manufacturing sector. But even in the manufacturing sector, 53 million jobs were lost. More recently, CRISIL, a global analytical company has shown in a study that since 2007, over 37 million Indian farmers had abandoned agriculture and migrated into the cities. But in the last two years – between 2012 and 2014 – when economic growth had remained sluggish, an estimated 15 million have returned back to the villages in the absence of job opportunities. 

With roughly 54 percent of the population involved directly and indirectly with farming, and with the share of agriculture in country's GDP dipping to 14 percent, all is not well on the farm front. This is also reflected in the serial death dance on the farm that continues unabated. As per the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), approximately 300,000 farmers have committed suicide in the past 17 years. Even in the frontline agricultural State of Punjab, the country's food bowl, two farmers on an average are taking the suicide route every day. Nearly 60 percent of the farmers are deep in debt. What is more shocking is that a majority of those who produce food for the country actually go to bed hungry. 

Green Revolution

Nearly half a century after the Green Revolution was launched in 1966 by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, India has emerged out of the throes of a "ship-to-mouth" existence when food aid would come directly from the ships into the hungry mouths. The quantum jump in food production over the years has turned India into a net agricultural exporter. But while the Green Revolution certainly helped the country take care of its food needs, it bypassed the small and marginal farmers. At the same time, while production increased manifold, hunger too grew. 

Technology alone did not turn the tables. It was essentially the two planks of a "famine-avoidance" strategy that sustained increased production. Setting up a Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (then Agricultural Prices Commission) ensured an assured minimum support price for the farmers thereby providing them with an incentive to produce more. At the same time, Food Corporation of India (FCI) was set up to mop up the surplus harvests flowing into the dedicated agricultural markets, which was used for public distribution among the needy across the country through a vast network of ration shops. 

Prior to the Green Revolution, and before the Agricultural Prices Commission was set up, farmers were free to sell their produce to anyone who offered them good prices. It was known to be an exploitative system wherein the trade squeezed the profit margin of farmers at the time of harvest. It was only when procurement prices were introduced that farmers got an assured price for their produce, and that is what encouraged them to produce more. Procurement prices help farmers realise a fair and better price for their produce. 

India's Green Revolution success story owes much to the administration of procurement prices. But the same procurement prices have now become the villain of the story. Pro-reform economists now call it as an "archaic provisions of a socialist era" and are seeking the removal of the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act (APMC) that allows farmers to bring the produce to the designated mandis (markets) where the private trade is first allowed to make purchases. It's only when there are no private buyers left that the FCI or the State procurement agencies step in to lift whatever is available at the minimum support price or procurement price. 

It is therefore not only WTO that is asking India to restrict the reach of the procurement prices within the de minimis level. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices itself is on the forefront asking the procurement system, built so assiduously over the decades, to be dismantled. The argument is that farmers should be left free to sell to whomsoever they want thereby encouraging better competition and thereby realize a higher price. Considering that only 30 percent of India's 600 million farmers have access to procurement prices, the markets should have helped the remaining 70 percent farmers to reap a bounty. But that did not happen. In fact, the agrarian crisis is the worst in those areas where markets operate freely. 

Take the case of paddy in Bihar, which is the only State to have repealed the APMC Act way back in 2006. It had therefore allowed farmers the freedom to sell their produce to whosoever they like. Against the procurement price of 1,310 Rupees (15,3 Euros) per quintal (100 kilogram) that Punjab farmers got this year, Bihar farmers have somehow managed to sell paddy at something around 800 to 900 Rupees (9,4 to 10,5 Euros) per quintal. This is nothing but a distress price, a classic example of ruthless exploitation by the private trade. If Punjab too is directed to remove the procurement system, Punjab farmers will go the Bihar way. 

Agriculture refugees

In a quest to move from Green Revolution to the Second Green Revolution, India is on fast track to bring agriculture under corporate control. Amending the existing laws on land acquisition, water resources, seed, fertilizer, pesticides and food processing, the government is in an overdrive to usher in contract farming and encourage organized retail. This is exactly as per the advise of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund as well as the international financial institutes. 

The World Bank had in 1996 estimated that the number of people migrating from the rural to the urban areas in India by the year 2015 would be equal to twice the combined population of the United Kingdom, France and Germany, which is 200 million. So the World Bank had predicted that 400 million people would be moving out of rural areas in India. In the subsequent World Development Reports, especially 2008, the Bank had even suggested setting up of a vast network of training institutes where the young farmers could be trained to become industrial workers. It has also been pushing for land rentals in the rural areas enabling the industry to easily acquire farmlands. 

Although the exact estimates are not available, rural areas are on a boil as a result of the protests over land acquisitions. Foreign companies are also being allowed to get into joint collaborations for which large swaths of farmland is being made available. Industrial corridors, real estate projects, express highways, special economic zones are being aggressively pushed without ascertaining how much of farm land must be kept under cultivation for meeting the country's food security needs. 

The crisis therefore is two-fold. While the rural areas are being emptied, moving the population into the urban areas is leading to the collapse of the cities. It is expected that by 2035, roughly 50 percent of India's population will be urban based. Secondly, the population shift from rural areas along with prime farmland being diverted for non-agriculture purposes will create a food deficit thereby leading to an unforeseen crisis on the food security front. But somehow, the agrarian crisis as well as the economic growth paradigm does not pass through rural India. Nor is any political party before the elections 2014 deliberating on the consequences of the growth model sans a sustainable and economically viable agriculture. 

But what is crystal clear is that sooner than later, India will be heading back to the days of a "ship-to-mouth" existence. #

Source: Agriculture in 'terrible crisis.' http://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/190207/agriculture-in-terrible-crisis

In German: http://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/189174/landwirtschaft-in-der-krise

Punjab Chief Minister warns against the tyranny of markets.

Harvesting in progress in Punjab

You can feel the anguish when Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal talks about the plight of farmers. Recently at a New Delhi conference (See the link here: http://bit.ly/1848rxW) , he spoke about the conspiracy to ‘destabilize Indian agriculture’ and warned policy makers to be doubly cautious of the “advocates of the tyranny of the free market economy.” They will end up destroying India's food self-sufficiency, he warned. 

Food security is no less important than national security, and therefore he wants agriculture to be treated at par with defence services. 

A few days before the New Delhi conference, he was speaking at the Vibrant Gujarat Global Agriculture Summit that Narendra Modi had organized in Ahmedabad. Deviating from the written text, Mr Badal had lashed out at the votaries of the free market economy saying that if agriculture is lost, everything is lost. Amidst a loud applause, he said that many experts are being planted in India to undo the remarkable achievements of the Green Revolution, and once again make the country stand with a begging bowl. 

Several decades back, I remember Mr Badal’s loud warning against the continuous neglect of agriculture and the apathy towards farming. He was addressing a national conference. “This is a sleeping elephant,” I recall his words: “You ignore them at your own risk. Once the elephant wakes up, it will make you all run for cover.” And during the NDA regime when the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wanted to decentralize foodgrain procurement, Prakash singh Badal led the group of chief ministers who opposed the move vehemently. Mr Vajpayee had to drop the proposal considering the strong opposition from chief ministers of the frontline agricultural states.

The Punjab’s agriculture story is well known. As a student of agriculture, and then as an agricultural journalist, and finally as a policy researcher and analyst, I have had a ring side view of the remarkable strides taken in agriculture. Once the pride of the country, Punjab’s farmers have now turned into a national burden. So much so that the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) leads a campaign to dismantle the food procurement system that has sustained Punjab’s agriculture ever since the days of the Green Revolution. Under the premise of making agriculture market-friendly, CACP chairman Mr Ashok Gulati, is actually finding fault with the higher and assured procurement prices Punjab farmers get every season.

In its Kharifreport, CACP has even listed States according to its market-friendliness. These are Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal among others where paddy farmers for instance get a price of not more than Rs 900 per quintal. Punjab is at the bottom of the chart since farmers get an assured procurement price which is relatively high. CACP’s argument is that in a market economy, the assured procurement prices should be withdrawn. This is what has irked Mr Badal, and he has made it clear that any effort to dismantle the procurement system will destroy the very foundations of food self-sufficiency.

Interestingly, while Dr Ashok Gulati has been opposing wheat and paddy procurement prices, he has been advocating introduction of a procurement price for maize so as to shift the acreage from paddy under the recently launched crop diversification programme in Punjab. Intriguing, isn’t it? What is not good for wheat and paddy is being projected as savior for maize farmers.

At a time when it is generally believed that the era of price policy is over, the policy thrust is to move farmers away from the assured income through procurement prices to building entrepreneurship and linking farmers to the markets. This is where Mr Badal has time and again expressed his concerns. And, rightly so. But what I still don’t understand is that despite chief minister’s warning, the State’s agricultural policy is still designed on the same market economy pattern that he finds fault with. The ‘sharks’ in the free market economy will therefore continue to prevail.

I am often asked as to what a land-locked state like Punjab can do to prop up its economy if it does not shift farmers out of agriculture? Farming cannot sustain the economy, nor can the average household incomes go up. Land acquisition for the sake of industry and real estate therefore is being aggressively pursued. Perhaps this is what Mr Badal has been time and again told. But what is not being told is that if a tiny European country like Holland can emerge as the second biggest agricultural exporter in the world, and where average farm household incomes are 265 per cent higher than the national average, why can’t Punjab do the same? I am not advocating the industrial farming model that Holland had once adopted (but is now moving to LEISA -- Low External Input Sustainable Agriculture practices) but certainly Punjab can make suitable modifications to ensure that it doesn't repeat the same mistakes. 

Switzerland too is a small country. It hasn’t adopted the industrial pathway to development. It hasn’t therefore done any irreparable damage to its nature and natural resources. So Punjab certainly can carve a niche for itself by ushering in a sustainable model of development linking environment-friendly agriculture with rural-based industry. 

Unfortunately, while the Chief Minister is concerned, the kind of farm experts the State has are coming from the same school of thought that brought in the crisis in the first instance. Punjab therefore needs experts/leaders/advisors with vision and wisdom rather than free market ideologues. A little more imagination in planning, and a determination to build an agriculture-based economy which does not suck the groundwater dry, does not pollute with chemical pesticides, and which does not lead to farmer suicides is what is desperately needed. # 

Monsoon came in late but was in no hurry to leave.

In the midst of all the noise and din over the approval of FDI in multi-brand retail, comes the bad news. Despite the revival of monsoon in late Aug and September, the acreage under kharif sowings remains dismally short by 55.62 lakh hectares. While the area and production of paddy has not been severely impacted, it is coarse cereals, kharif pulses and oilseeds like groundnut which will record lower production. 

Some estimates point to a shortfall of about 15 million tonnes in foodgrain production, but there is no cause for alarm given the overflowing stocks of wheat and rice. 

Monsoon rains, which began late leaving Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh as the worst hit, appeared to be in no hurry to leave. Getting it all wrong this year, the Indian Meteorological Department is now finding it embarrassing to explain why southwest monsoon is not withdrawing as predicted. IMD had pointed to a dry September hoping the phenomenon of El Nino – which mostly brings in dry conditions in India – to become active in the tail-end of the rainy season. 

On the contrary, widespread rainfall lashed much of India in the week ending. What began as a dry season, with 42 per cent rainfall deficiency recorded in June, the country as a whole has received normal and above normal rainfall for most days of the first half of September. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, excess or normal rainfall has been recorded in 23 and deficient in the remaining 13 subdivisions. Accordingly, no region now falls in the category of scanty rainfall. 

Interestingly, most of the areas that were reportedly faced with a severe dry spell, and that comprised nearly 300 districts, have been slashed by continuous rains over the past two weeks. In some parts of the country, heavy and incessant rains have on the other hand created flood-like conditions, disrupting life and even forcing the State governments to launch evacuation measures. The erratic rainfall pattern has thrown up serious lessons, which we intend to forget after the monsoon season is over. 

Four States had officially declared drought – Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan. In Gujarat, for instance, several parts of north, south and central state were hit by a drought. In addition to Kutch-Saurashtra and north Gujarat regions, neighbouring Union Territory of Diu, Daman and Dadra Nagar Haveli too was reeling under drought like conditions. Gujarat had demanded a drought-relief package of Rs 18,673.37 crore from the Centre. 

But in the second half of August and the first fortnight of September, most parts of the drought-affected regions were lashed with heavy rains as a result of which excess water from several reservoirs had to be released inundating in the process several villages and towns. Gujarat had to press in evacuation services. What is equally more intriguing is that while Kutch received the lowest rainfall in June-July, Surat district registered the highest rainfall in a decade. Such extreme variations exists in almost each of the states. 

In Madhya Pradesh, heavy rains not only disrupted life in several major cities but also ended drought in east and western parts. Rainfall now remains deficit in only four districts – Barwani, Umaria, Balaghat and Dindori. In Karnataka, where the Chief Minister had to order 12 legislators of the Estimates Committee travelling to Argentina to cut-short their visit in view of the public outcry at the time of the drought, recent rains have brought in some relief. 

I am not sure whether the Rs 17-crore puja programme evoked sympathy from the rain gods, but according to the Bangalore-based Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre moderate rainfall has been received in Chikmagalur, Davangere and Haveri districts, and light to heavy rains in Chikkaballapur, Gulbarga, Hassan, Chitradurga, Gadag, Belgaum, Kolar, Mandya, Bellary, Tumkur, Koppal, Ramnagar and Dharwad districts, while dry conditions prevailed in rest of the State. Karnataka had sought Rs 11,488.96 crore as drought relief. 

In Rajasthan, many days of heavy downpour has turned several parts of the State as flood-affected. Against a shortfall of 29.69 per cent till Aug 10, Rajasthan has now received 4.89 per cent above normal rainfall. It had to rope in Army in rescue and relief operations after 33 lives were lost. In Uttarakhand, which too reeled under drought in June, heavy rains have left 50 people dead, sparked landslides and flash floods, and brought in Army to evacuate 20,000 people to 60 relief camps.   

Let us be very clear that it is however too late to reverse the damage done to the ongoing kharif harvest. The absence of rainfall at the time of sowing has already left a soaring gap in the production potential. Late rains can help the standing crop but cannot bring in the remaining unsown area under foodgrains production. While it remains a fact that the country has failed to bring in effective measures for preparedness as well as mitigating drought, and has not been able to draw out a drought-proofing plan despite being faced with recurring dry spells, what worries me is the refusal to draw any immediate lessons from the monsoon drift – heavy rainfall in August and September. 

Call it erratic rainfall or the changing weather pattern, the fact remains that subsequent bouts of dry spell followed by heavy rains, often leading to floods in dry pockets, should be alarming enough. So far we have witnessed floods in one region while a sizable portion of the country goes dry, and at the same time there are some indications of monsoon beginning early in east India, but the new phenomenon of monsoon drift should be the focus of disaster preparedness. 

Farmers are more ingenious than planners. While the planners and policy makers will wait for screaming editorials before they take any notice, farmers have already moved to adaptive technologies. Take Punjab, for instance. Hit by a severe dry spell, Punjab farmers have shifted to late-sown and less water consuming basmati rice varieties. This year, one-fourth of the area under paddy has been brought under basmatirice.  

'The Foundation for New Agriculture' taking roots

We ushered in the new year with an energised start that saw a gathering of 14 veteran natural farmers up at Patanjali Yog Peeth in Haridwar to discuss the potential of agriculture with a new dimension. Agriculture that is safe, sustainable, user friendly and affordable by marginal farmers. 

I am truly delighted to share the highlights of this 4 day meet (1st - 5th Jan) with you. 

The 'One small step towards chemical free agriculture' as Devinder coins it, is his brain child.( article below).  For a long time now, it has been Devinder's mission to equip marginal farmers and release them from their debts by linking like-minded green guardians on a common platform, help provide alternative safe farming practices. Hence, revolutionize the safe food movement, a dream now slowly manifesting not just for him but for all of us. 

By educating and winning the trust of most spiritual leaders on food and trade issues, Devinder's concerns finds a voice to awaken and alert a vast devotee following. His perseverance is bound to bear fruition. His consistent proactive advice and interactions with Swami Ramdev, the yoga guru whose unceasing zeal since 2002 has been to educate the masses daily on apackage of seven simple breathing exercises whose message to all, more so to young India, is to take charge of the mind, body and soul. In fact while at the deliberations, we were invited by Swami Ramdevji to partake in his yog session amidst 40,000 devotees. Most admirable, especially when you get to witness first hand a 100 Surya Namaskaars in record time of 4 mins! Whilst each one of were dazed, overwhelmed at his energy levels, it also unraveled how unfit we all were! Swamiji does not just advocate good health through yog but to indulge in safe foods and avail the benefits of Ayurveda to make it an integral part of one's life rather than to be at the mercy of hospitals. 

To this effect, Swami Ramdevji wished to explore how safe sustainable agricultural practices could be brought into the forefront of National food security that starts at the grass roots. Hence, 14 best practitioners in this field were identified from across the country and then invited for a 4 day deliberation at Haridwar. We had the privilege of Swami Ramdevji's energised presence throughout these 4 days from 9am- 8.30pm! 

I have yet to know of any spiritual leader who takes such deep interest and quality time out to understand the best practices presented by each one of our veteran farmers. My joy knew no bounds as i had the privilege and opportunity to present and share my farm learnings with Swami Ramdevji, Devinder and our humble agriculture gurus. This was aired live on Aastha channel. The genuine interest, the probing dilemmas, the crisis faced by our farmers, the solutions were dissected and tackled in earnest by Swami Ramdevji. Most inspiring to see his intensity during our presentations, the grave questions asked, jotting relevant points in his small black note pad, then summed it all up with much ease. 

It did not just stop there. The most important issue that arose was how this would translate on the ground. Then came an action plan to execute three safe sustainable farm models in Hardiwar to start with, as seeing is believing! Prompt decisions were instantly taken by Swami Ramdevji and Acharya Balkrishanji to allocate land in Hardiwar for the 3 farm models.  Suresh Desai a founding member of an Organic Farmers' Club with over 400 members in Belgaum District of Karnataka will design a model, Subhash Sharma- whose 32 acre  farm in Yavatmal is flourishing, and has become a model for hundreds of other farmers will design the second one. And me and team Annadana the third one...on the traditional vegetable and cereal for the purpose of seed production, multiplication and conservation. Concurrently Team Annadana will also  design a seed bank, one that is replicable. 

Further, to strengthen our models, the back up ammunition of time tested knowledge and expertise arising from our team of Krishi Vigyaans or Krishi Rishi as Swami Ramdevji fondly calls us are Natbar Sarangiji who maintains 365 indigenous rice germplasm collection, Raghuvanjiji on 100's of varieties of indigenous wheat, Dr Surendar Dalal expertise has no bounds on insect and pest management, Dr Narayan Reddy on his wisdom of integrated farm practices, Rajbir Singh from All India Pingalwara Amritsar sharing his successful experience, Amarjit Singh Sharma from Faridkot who continues with vigor  in producing and marketing safe crops in the most infested toxic bowl of Punjab, Shoor vir Singh from Uttar Pradesh whose knowledge on 95 varieties of weeds and their uses is just incredible, Ahir Mayan Hamir from Kutch with his expertise on groundnuts and castor and the young new age farmer Poorvi Vyas, with her research and development background so handy to document and aid each one us willingly and cheerfully. 

Work has already commenced in the selected fields with best practices in soil fertility management being implemented. A team of reliable, enterprising points of contact co-ordinated by Vinod Kumar Birkhani, Uttarakhand Open University, school of agriculture  and Sanjay Khare, a dedicated sevak from Patanjali Peet Yog are monitoring this whilst we have come back to our respective destinations carrying forward the energy to our teams. 

There is a buzz, an excitement, a challenge to plan and showcase low cost sustainable farm models and we hope to see this through in 2012.

An overwhelming response of interest and support continues to flow when Devinder Sharma's wrote about this on his facebook. Those interested to lend support may connect him on hunger55@gmail.com

(From My right to Safe Food campaign newsletter) Jan 14, 2012